The100: Uncertainty, precrastination and the Simpsons

File under: Must listen to

I love Sam Conniff’s work on the Uncertainty Experts. And his talk with Neil Perkin on becoming comfortable with uncertainty is quite possibly my favourite thing since the recall email function. A few (ok, lots of…) highlights:

• (02.34 – 03:50): We’re so wedded to a particular type of hierarchy and meritocracy that it’s led to a homogeny of ideas.
• (06:05 – 09:18) There’s evidence to suggest that uncertainty is a catalyst for innovation and can push the mind into its optimum state for learning.
• (25:18 – 26.30) In moments of uncertainty, would you rather be seen as decisive even if it led to a negative outcome, or indecisive if it led to a positive outcome? Shockingly, 90% of leaders said the former. 
• (27:21 – 31:09) There is an over reliance on data, even though gut instinct is incredibly reliable.
• (34:31 – 36:02) The Colin Powell 40/70 rule – If you have less than 40% of the available information, then you’re in the dark and you shouldn’t do anything. But if you wait until over 70%, you’ll miss the opportunity.
• (39:31 – 40:43) Interoception is the 8th human sense. It’s our ability to turn emotions into data and interpret our internal signals. It’s how we know whether we need to take action or just move through unexpected news.

Untangling the facts 

Using the example of 2 news articles about the same research, but with opposite headlines, Nick Bloom shows how there can be a difference between the data and the story. Hmmm. Also, can somebody please tell me where these biases are coming from? 

A good reminder to always look at the source data, ask others for their opinion, and, most importantly, remember who is delivering the story to you and what they have to gain. 

Are you a precrastinator?

We all know that procrastinating and putting things off can cause issues, but it turns out doing the opposite can also cause issues. So, are you a precrastinator? 

“Precrastination is when a person does a task as soon as they can, so they don’t have to think about it any more – often before it needs to be completed […] In order to check something off their to-do list, precrastinators expend extra energy on a task, or rush through projects to arrive at the relief of having it be over.”

Are we better people? Or are we cheats? 

What contributes to dishonest behaviour? Our friends at Capuchin shared an article on exactly that. Dishonesty was measured using self reported performance vs. actual performance (for more detail see reported Golf scores by ex-presidents).   

“Our findings indicate that gender does not significantly influence the occurrence or extent of dishonest behavior. Moreover, we discovered that “Social Desirability” positively influences the extent of dishonesty, while “Task Orientation” increases the likelihood of engaging in dishonest acts.”

But perhaps lying is on the decline? A recent study suggested that 8 out of 10 of us think we are better people than we were 5 years ago. (I wonder if there’s any social desirability effects there?) 

Out of interest, when you hear the phrase ‘8 out of 10’ do you find your brain adds the word ‘prefer’ and then a certain pet food brand? The power of advertising right there. 

Whinge corner

Ensh*ttification is a term being used more and more, this time it is reserved for the self checkout. Personally I love a self checkout, but I do resent a few things about them, for example, being ID’ed (I’m 49 and look it) and not getting any reward points for using them.

There’s some choice language in here, but it’s a good and funny read about something you might have heard mentioned a few times (rhymes with ‘hi’).

Goodbye HR department. Welcome ‘Colleague Experience Group’. Only at AMEX (thank goodness). I have nothing to say on this, apart from the same reaction you probably had when you first read it.

And finally…

Every single Simpsons sofa moment – in just under 2 hours.

As more and more characters enter the public domain, expect to see more spinach based adverts next year. Lastly, the Watch Me Think UK team are all walking 22 miles for Dementia UK on 26th Sept – if you want to support this cause you can do so here. For every project we win until that date we’re also donating £150 per project. Thank you lovely people.